INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Anthropic IPO odds & valuation predictions
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
IPO timing, offering valuation and first-day market cap are different questions. A “no IPO” outcome can change how a valuation bracket settles. Read each contract’s rules; market-cap estimates alone do not establish an IPO share price.
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 8.5% | 688.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $566.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 127.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $138.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 95.3% | 4.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $61.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 24.0% | 230.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $22.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.4% | 1,598.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $21.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 785.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $21.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $20.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.6% | 1,518.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $19.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | 4,443.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.9k | ↗ |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 5,160.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $18.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 21.1% | 268.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 8,356.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.3% | 1,663.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 435.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | 6,280.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 95.7% | 3.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,206.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,840.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.3k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗