INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.9% | 1,812.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $81.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 95.3% | 4.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $61.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.2% | 1,089.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $40.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 24.0% | 230.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.0k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.0% | 2,547.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $22.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $22.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.4% | 1,597.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $20.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $20.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.6% | 1,518.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $19.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | 4,442.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.2% | 2,344.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 8.0% | 729.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 790.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 8,355.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 21.3% | 265.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | 6,279.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,839.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 95.6% | 3.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 3.3% | 1,663.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.1k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗