INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
OpenAI IPO odds & valuation predictions
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
IPO timing, offering valuation and first-day market cap are different questions. A “no IPO” outcome can change how a valuation bracket settles. Read each contract’s rules; market-cap estimates alone do not establish an IPO share price.
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 50.5% | 77.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $94.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 140.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $92.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.9% | 1,812.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $81.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 95.3% | 4.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $61.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 886.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $48.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.2% | 1,089.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $40.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.0% | 2,547.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $22.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.2% | 2,344.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 8.0% | 729.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $18.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.3% | 101.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 6,445.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $10.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 25.9% | 210.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.4% | 516.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 376.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 33.5% | 388.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $8.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 21.0% | 3,357.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $7.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 28.2% | 189.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.8% | 306.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,194.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $LLM? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 2.3% | 2,255.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.1k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗