INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
OpenAI IPO odds & valuation predictions
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
IPO timing, offering valuation and first-day market cap are different questions. A “no IPO” outcome can change how a valuation bracket settles. Read each contract’s rules; market-cap estimates alone do not establish an IPO share price.
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 77.7% | 23.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.8% | 2,792.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 21.0% | 3,357.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $4.8k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 74.0% | 28.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.4k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 50.5% | 77.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.9k | ↗ |
| Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.7k | ↗ |
| Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.7k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.5% | 108.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 26.0% | 209.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.6k | ↗ |
| Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.6k | ↗ |
| Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.6k | ↗ |
| Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.9% | 1,812.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.1% | 1,366.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.5% | 1,242.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 557.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.5% | 1,035.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 74.5% | 14.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗