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Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $1.1kLifetime volume $1.9kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes9.9%
9.85¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No90.1%
90.15¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.017 / 0.18. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:36:57.687208Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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