A research tool for event contracts
InvestorOdds helps investors find contracts by investment theme, deadline and liquidity. Our starting provider is Polymarket. Provider identity stays visible on every contract, and the data model supports adding other sources later.
Prices are not promises
A contract price is often interpreted as a market-implied probability. It can also reflect thin liquidity, fees, uncertainty and trading frictions. A quote is not our forecast, and a contract is not ownership of the underlying company.
Return per year: conditional on winning
A contract bought at $0.80 with a $1 winning payout has a 25% gross return if it wins. Over two years, that corresponds to about 11.8% annualized. If it loses with a zero payout, the full stake is lost. Special resolution outcomes may produce a different payout.
Annualized return = (winning payout / total budget) raised to (365 / days), minus one. Fees reduce the amount available to buy shares. The calculator lets you change entry price, total costs and days to payout. It does not estimate your probability of winning. Table figures use indicative prices and exclude fees.
Time horizons
The default is 3 months to 3 years. Contracts with less than three months remaining are excluded from discovery. Explicit question dates are used for horizon screening where available; otherwise we use provider end dates. Month-only questions with no clear year are excluded rather than assigned a guessed horizon. The original rules determine the observation window, deadline, source and settlement. Events can happen and resolve before their deadline.
Rules first, AI second
Original terms remain visible. AI Central drafts inexpensive plain-language explanations once per version of the rules. Explanations are published only after review and withdrawn automatically when their source terms change. Ambiguous wording stays ambiguous; we do not silently invent a clearer condition.
Coverage and freshness
Scheduled discovery refreshes the catalogue; broad categories appear as qualifying contracts become available, and theme filters update from the current provider tags. Sports and next-day trading are excluded. Coverage is curated by theme and is not a complete record of every provider market. We show fetch times and flag data older than an hour. Contracts missing from a successful discovery refresh, or quotes older than 24 hours, leave the screener. Their detail pages remain available for context; absence does not necessarily mean the market has closed.
Sources and operator
InvestorOdds is an independent research website operated by the Prediction Website Network. It is not affiliated with Polymarket. We use public provider data and link to the source rules. The operator can receive referral benefits from links explicitly labelled as referrals. Standard contract source links are not presented as investment recommendations.
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