INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
OpenAI IPO odds & valuation predictions
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
IPO timing, offering valuation and first-day market cap are different questions. A “no IPO” outcome can change how a valuation bracket settles. Read each contract’s rules; market-cap estimates alone do not establish an IPO share price.
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.8% | 107.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.9% | 596.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 58.0% | 57.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $842 | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 39.0% | 120.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $686 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 57.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $616 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 45.5% | 93.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $503 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AAGI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 236.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $447 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 46.5% | 89.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $430 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $CGPT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 25.3% | 216.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $409 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIX? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 40.3% | 114.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $380 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 560.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $375 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OA? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 25.1% | 218.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $372 | ↗ |
| SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | SpaceX | 74.9% | 27.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $369 | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 40.0% | 115.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $314 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.0% | 654.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $211 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $AIGI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 0.3% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $123 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 34.5% | 143.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $48 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 34.5% | 143.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $46 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗