INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
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Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $119.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 3,787.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $96.6k | ↗ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 58.5% | 639.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $90.1k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $80.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $77.1k | ↗ |
| US recession by end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 35.0% | 141.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Dec 2027 | $20.7k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 52.5% | 125.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Aug 2027 | $7.5k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 13.0% | 8,367.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Apr 2027 | $5.1k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 33.5% | 652.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 May 2027 | $4.2k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 35.0% | 339.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Jul 2027 | $3.9k | ↗ |
| Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 6.6% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 8 Feb 2027 | $3.7k | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.25% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 3.1% | 1,734.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $775 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 3.6% | 1,537.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $760 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.9% | 2,664.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $738 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.5% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.4% | 3,580.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $632 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.0% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 618.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $596 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥6.0% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 0.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $551 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 435.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $541 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 4.3% | 1,294.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $521 | ↗ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2027? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 19.5% | 293.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $509 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗