Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by...?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 8 Apr 2027Liquidity $4.7kLifetime volume $2.2kSource Polymarket

START HERE

What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2027, currently scheduled for March 16 to 17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes13.0%

13.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No87.0%

87.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.11 / 0.15. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:45:01+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:44:58.487592Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

Explore more economy & rates →