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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 141.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $110.2k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 897.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $58.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 59.5% | 54.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $58.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.3% | 924.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $27.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.5% | 517.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 39.5% | 288.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $16.4k | ↗ |
| GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 87.5% | 11.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Dec 2027 | $14.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 35.4% | 139.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.5% | 4,200.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $10.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.5% | 517.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 128.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.0% | 4,744.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $8.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.8% | 998.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.1k | ↗ |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 47.5% | 197.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $6.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 18.9% | 307.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.8k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 74.4% | 28.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.1% | 256.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.4k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 26.1% | 209.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.4k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.7% | 878.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.4% | 794.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.9k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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