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GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?

GPT-7 released by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 31 Dec 2027Liquidity $15.2kLifetime volume $9.2kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves Yes if OpenAI makes a qualifying general-purpose GPT model, version 7 or higher, publicly available between market creation and the deadline; otherwise No. Resolution uses official OpenAI information as the primary source, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Conditions for a winning outcome

The model's name or identifier must include "GPT" and an explicit version designation of 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization, prefixes, suffixes, dates or descriptors. Any OpenAI general-purpose family qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna or a successor family. GPT-7, GPT-7.1 and GPT-8 qualify. The model must actually be publicly accessible, including through open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. OpenAI must either clearly define and publicly announce the release as accessible to the general public, or make it publicly accessible and explicitly label it on its official website.

Exclusions and exceptions

Releases outside the qualifying period; closed beta or private access; names or identifiers lacking GPT or an explicit version of 7 or higher; versions below 7, regardless of positioning; task-specific or modality lines, including GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription and text-to-speech models. Website labeling errors, placeholders or version names do not count unless they correspond to an actually publicly accessible model.

Timing & resolution

The rules specify December 31, 2027 in ET. Provider metadata instead gives December 31, 2027 at 23:59 UTC, which is 18:59 ET that day. These are not the same cutoff.

Ambiguities in the rules

The ET date in the rules conflicts with the provider's 18:59 ET end timestamp, leaving the precise cutoff unresolved. The rules also do not define how a consensus of credible reporting is established. Releases after the applicable cutoff do not qualify; successor families still need GPT and an explicit version of 7 or higher in the name or identifier.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes87.0%
87.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No13.0%
13.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.85 / 0.89. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:56:06.238052Z

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A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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