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GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?
GPT-7 released by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if OpenAI makes a qualifying general-purpose GPT model, version 7 or higher, publicly available between market creation and the deadline; otherwise No. Resolution uses official OpenAI information as the primary source, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The model's name or identifier must include "GPT" and an explicit version designation of 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization, prefixes, suffixes, dates or descriptors. Any OpenAI general-purpose family qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna or a successor family. GPT-7, GPT-7.1 and GPT-8 qualify. The model must actually be publicly accessible, including through open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. OpenAI must either clearly define and publicly announce the release as accessible to the general public, or make it publicly accessible and explicitly label it on its official website.
Exclusions and exceptions
Releases outside the qualifying period; closed beta or private access; names or identifiers lacking GPT or an explicit version of 7 or higher; versions below 7, regardless of positioning; task-specific or modality lines, including GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription and text-to-speech models. Website labeling errors, placeholders or version names do not count unless they correspond to an actually publicly accessible model.
Timing & resolution
The rules specify December 31, 2027 in ET. Provider metadata instead gives December 31, 2027 at 23:59 UTC, which is 18:59 ET that day. These are not the same cutoff.
Ambiguities in the rules
The ET date in the rules conflicts with the provider's 18:59 ET end timestamp, leaving the precise cutoff unresolved. The rules also do not define how a consensus of credible reporting is established. Releases after the applicable cutoff do not qualify; successor families still need GPT and an explicit version of 7 or higher in the name or identifier.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.85 / 0.89. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:56:06.238052Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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