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GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?
GPT-7 released by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether OpenAI releases GPT-7 to the general public by June 30, 2027. Resolves Yes if a qualifying GPT-7-or-higher general-purpose model launches publicly within the period; otherwise No. Primary resolution source is official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A model qualifies if its name or identifier includes GPT with version 7 or higher (e.g., GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, GPT-7.1, GPT-8) and it is launched and publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as generally accessible, or publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on OpenAI's official website. Placeholder text or version labels not tied to an actually accessible model do not qualify. Any general-purpose family (Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or successors) qualifies if it carries version 7 or higher.
Exclusions and exceptions
Models with version below 7 (e.g., GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1), models without an explicit version 7 or higher in the name or identifier, and task-specific or modality lines (GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, text-to-speech) do not qualify. Closed beta or any private access does not suffice.
Timing & resolution
2027-06-30T23:59:00Z (equivalent to ET deadline specified in the question).
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not define what counts as a publicly announced release if OpenAI makes the model accessible without a formal announcement. It is also unclear how conflicts between official OpenAI information and credible reporting will be resolved when they disagree.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.44 / 0.5. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T14:00:06+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T13:58:05.727244Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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