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GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?

GPT-7 released by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 30 Jun 2027Liquidity $6.7kLifetime volume $10.9kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Predicts whether OpenAI releases GPT-7 to the general public by June 30, 2027. Resolves Yes if a qualifying GPT-7-or-higher general-purpose model launches publicly within the period; otherwise No. Primary resolution source is official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A model qualifies if its name or identifier includes GPT with version 7 or higher (e.g., GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, GPT-7.1, GPT-8) and it is launched and publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as generally accessible, or publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on OpenAI's official website. Placeholder text or version labels not tied to an actually accessible model do not qualify. Any general-purpose family (Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or successors) qualifies if it carries version 7 or higher.

Exclusions and exceptions

Models with version below 7 (e.g., GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1), models without an explicit version 7 or higher in the name or identifier, and task-specific or modality lines (GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, text-to-speech) do not qualify. Closed beta or any private access does not suffice.

Timing & resolution

2027-06-30T23:59:00Z (equivalent to ET deadline specified in the question).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not define what counts as a publicly announced release if OpenAI makes the model accessible without a formal announcement. It is also unclear how conflicts between official OpenAI information and credible reporting will be resolved when they disagree.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-7 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and be designated as version 7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of OpenAI's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Astra, Sol, Terra, Luna, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 7 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, GPT-7, GPT-7 Astra, GPT-7 Sol, or a later version such as GPT-7.1 or GPT-8 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 7, such as GPT-6 Astra or GPT-6.1, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 7 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. Task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime, transcription, or text-to-speech models will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes47.0%
47.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No53.0%
53.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.44 / 0.5. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T14:00:06+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T13:58:05.727244Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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