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Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?
Claude 6 released by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Anthropic makes a qualifying Claude version 6-or-higher general-purpose model publicly available between market creation and the deadline. Otherwise resolves No.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The name or model identifier must include Claude and an explicit version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding descriptors. Any Anthropic general-purpose family qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku or a successor. The model must actually be publicly accessible; open beta and open rolling waitlist signups count. Anthropic must clearly define and publicly announce it as accessible to the general public, or it must be publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on Anthropic's official website. Resolution primarily uses official Anthropic information, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Exclusions and exceptions
Versions below 6 and models without an explicit version 6-or-higher designation do not qualify. Neither do closed betas, private access, or labeling errors, placeholders or website version names without an actually publicly accessible model. A Mythos-branded release limited to verification or trusted-access programs, or task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov or Claude Security, does not qualify on its own. An announcement without actual public accessibility is insufficient.
Timing & resolution
The rules specify June 30, 2027 (ET). Provider metadata gives June 30, 2027 at 23:59 UTC, which is 7:59 p.m. EDT that day. These do not clearly establish the same cutoff.
Ambiguities in the rules
The material uncertainty is the cutoff: the rules specify a date in ET without an exact time, while provider metadata specifies 7:59 p.m. EDT, earlier than the end of that ET date. The source does not state which controls. It does specify No if no qualifying release occurs and requires actual public accessibility.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.69 / 0.72. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:56:06.238052Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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