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Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?

Claude 6 released by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 30 Jun 2027Liquidity $8.4kLifetime volume $12.2kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves Yes if Anthropic makes a qualifying Claude version 6-or-higher general-purpose model publicly available between market creation and the deadline. Otherwise resolves No.

Conditions for a winning outcome

The name or model identifier must include Claude and an explicit version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding descriptors. Any Anthropic general-purpose family qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku or a successor. The model must actually be publicly accessible; open beta and open rolling waitlist signups count. Anthropic must clearly define and publicly announce it as accessible to the general public, or it must be publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on Anthropic's official website. Resolution primarily uses official Anthropic information, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Exclusions and exceptions

Versions below 6 and models without an explicit version 6-or-higher designation do not qualify. Neither do closed betas, private access, or labeling errors, placeholders or website version names without an actually publicly accessible model. A Mythos-branded release limited to verification or trusted-access programs, or task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov or Claude Security, does not qualify on its own. An announcement without actual public accessibility is insufficient.

Timing & resolution

The rules specify June 30, 2027 (ET). Provider metadata gives June 30, 2027 at 23:59 UTC, which is 7:59 p.m. EDT that day. These do not clearly establish the same cutoff.

Ambiguities in the rules

The material uncertainty is the cutoff: the rules specify a date in ET without an exact time, while provider metadata specifies 7:59 p.m. EDT, earlier than the end of that ET date. The source does not state which controls. It does specify No if no qualifying release occurs and requires actual public accessibility.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes70.5%
70.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No29.5%
29.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.69 / 0.72. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:56:06.238052Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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