Contract resolution rules
AI-assisted explanation
Predicts whether the next Claude Opus 5.6+ model achieves an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of 60% or higher. Resolves Yes/No based on either the chart value or a CAIS-published qualifying score, with a provider end date of July 1, 2027.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The market resolves Yes if a qualifying model (name includes Opus, version 5.6+) is newly added to the HLE results and its HLE-Diamond Accuracy is at least 60% at the check time. The check occurs at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the model first appears on the chart, or at the end of a three-day period if a CAIS qualifying score is published first. A qualifying score must be overall accuracy on the full 1,000-question HLE-Diamond set (released September 22, 2026), without tools, at the high reasoning setting, issued under CAIS's name (including jointly with Scale AI) on agi.safe.ai, lastexam.ai, or dashboard.safe.ai. If multiple qualifying scores for the same model are published within the three-day window, the highest is used, rounded to one decimal place. If multiple qualifying models are added the same calendar day, the model with the highest HLE-Diamond Accuracy is used. If the chart value is clearly erroneous due to technical or operational error or unauthorized interference, the market may remain open up to seven calendar days (ET) for a correction.
Exclusions and exceptions
The market resolves No if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if the qualifying model's HLE-Diamond Accuracy is below 60%. It also resolves No if a model is added then removed without re-addition, if a model's name lacks Opus or version is below 5.6, or if the score used is not the chart value or a CAIS qualifying score (e.g., original HLE, HLE-Rolling, with-tools, sample-based, Reasoning or Knowledge partition scores, API-only data, Scale AI separate leaderboards, other evaluators, or developer-provided scores). The provider end date is July 1, 2027.
Timing & resolution
Provider end date: 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z. The resolution check occurs at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first appearance on the chart (or at the end of the three-day period after first CAIS publication, whichever applies). If the primary resolution source is unavailable, the market resolves based on first subsequent availability, or No if unavailable through the seventh day after first appearance or by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Ambiguities in the rules
The term 'newly added' is not precisely defined as a specific timestamp or event distinct from 'first appears on the site,' creating uncertainty about whether a minor update to an existing model entry qualifies. The error-correction clause leaves open what action Polymarket may take after issuing a Clarification. The interaction between the seven-day error correction window and the June 30, 2027 hard deadline is not explicitly addressed.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE-Diamond Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE-Diamond Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on HLE-Diamond" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the HLE-Diamond Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, any note that a score was computed on a sample of questions, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If the Center for AI Safety (CAIS), which maintains the official Humanity's Last Exam results, publishes a qualifying score (defined below) for the model, and the model has not been displayed on the chart by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day (ET) after the first such publication, that score will be used instead, rounded to one decimal place. If multiple qualifying scores for the model have been published by that time, the highest will be used.
A qualifying score is one issued under CAIS's name (for example, on https://agi.safe.ai/, https://lastexam.ai/, or https://dashboard.safe.ai/, including jointly with Scale AI) that is clearly identified as overall accuracy on the full HLE-Diamond question set (1,000 questions, released September 22, 2026), without tools, at the reasoning setting labeled "high" in HLE-Diamond's main results.
No score other than the chart value or a qualifying score will count, even if no qualifying score is published. This includes scores on the original Humanity's Last Exam or HLE-Rolling, "reasoning max" or "with tools" results, Reasoning or Knowledge partition scores, values available only through an API, data file, or page source, scores from Scale AI's separate leaderboards, other evaluators, or the model's developer, and any score where there is reasonable doubt that it meets the conditions above.
A model first appears on the site on the earlier of the date (ET) it is first displayed on the chart and the date (ET) a qualifying score for it is first published. If the chart value is used, the check described in the first paragraph takes place at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first display on the chart; if a qualifying score is used, it takes place at the end of the three-day period described above.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE-Diamond Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered.
If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that no HLE-Diamond Accuracy for it is available under these rules at the time of the check, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at the time of the check, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE-Diamond Accuracy becomes available. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".