Yes8.5%
Financial health Open at last refresh
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
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What actually has to happen?
This contract pays out if Anthropic announces bankruptcy by December 31, 2027. An announcement of intent to file or a filing announcement suffices, regardless of actual completion. Resolution requires official channels or credible consensus. No trade recommendation or probability is provided.
What qualifies
Resolution to Yes requires Anthropic to announce it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the deadline. The announcement must be made through official or verified channels, such as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other officially representing individual or team. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The announcement alone suffices even if the actual filing never occurs.
What does not qualify
Resolution to No occurs if no such announcement is made by the deadline. Internal decisions, unauthorized statements, rumors without credible consensus, or actual bankruptcy filings without an announcement before the deadline do not qualify. Completion of a filing is irrelevant; only the announcement matters. No announcement means No resolution.
Timing & resolution
The listed date is December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The provider end date is January 1, 2028, at 04:59 UTC. The resolution is based on the listed date deadline.
Read carefully
Ambiguity exists around 'any variety' of bankruptcy and what constitutes a 'definitive consensus of credible reporting.' The rules do not specify how conflicting credible reports are resolved, nor the exact threshold for consensus. It is unclear if a no-event scenario (e.g., dissolution without bankruptcy filing) or a tie (simultaneous announcement and retraction) is treated specially. The provider end date is after the listed date, but the relationship between the two is not explicitly defined.
AI-assisted explanation reviewed against this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
THE MARKET’S VIEW
Two outcomes. One precise question.
No91.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.08 / 0.09. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T09:15:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:14:59.071051Z
Keep the investment thesis separate
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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