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Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?
Claude 6 released by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether Anthropic releases a Claude 6-or-higher general-purpose model to the public by March 31, 2027.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A model qualifies if its name or identifier includes Claude and version 6 or higher, covering Claude Fable 6, Opus 6, Sonnet 6, Haiku 6, later versions like 6.1, or Claude 7. It must be publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist, clearly announced by Anthropic or explicitly labeled as publicly accessible on Anthropic's official website. Mythos-branded restricted-access releases, and task-specific lines like Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, do not qualify on their own.
Exclusions and exceptions
No qualifies if no such model is publicly released by the deadline. Models with version below 6, models without an explicit version 6+ in the name, closed or private betas, placeholder or mislabeled website entries, and restricted-access releases do not qualify.
Timing & resolution
2027-03-31T23:59:00Z (equivalent to ET).
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not define a precise cutoff time for when on or after the deadline constitutes a release that still qualifies for this market.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.34 / 0.39. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T20:00:12+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T19:58:27.16849Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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