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Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?

Claude 6 released by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 31 Mar 2027Liquidity $2.8kLifetime volume $18.8kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Predicts whether Anthropic releases a Claude 6-or-higher general-purpose model to the public by March 31, 2027.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A model qualifies if its name or identifier includes Claude and version 6 or higher, covering Claude Fable 6, Opus 6, Sonnet 6, Haiku 6, later versions like 6.1, or Claude 7. It must be publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist, clearly announced by Anthropic or explicitly labeled as publicly accessible on Anthropic's official website. Mythos-branded restricted-access releases, and task-specific lines like Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, do not qualify on their own.

Exclusions and exceptions

No qualifies if no such model is publicly released by the deadline. Models with version below 6, models without an explicit version 6+ in the name, closed or private betas, placeholder or mislabeled website entries, and restricted-access releases do not qualify.

Timing & resolution

2027-03-31T23:59:00Z (equivalent to ET).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not define a precise cutoff time for when on or after the deadline constitutes a release that still qualifies for this market.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes36.5%
36.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No63.5%
63.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.34 / 0.39. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T20:00:12+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T19:58:27.16849Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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