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Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?
Claude 6 released by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Anthropic makes a qualifying Claude version 6+ model available to the general public between market creation and the deadline; otherwise No. Official Anthropic information is the primary resolution source, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The name or model identifier must include Claude and an explicit version of 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, prefixes, suffixes, dates or descriptors. Any Anthropic general-purpose family qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku or successors. Versions such as 6.1 or 7 count. The model must be launched and publicly accessible; open beta and open rolling waitlist signups count. Anthropic must either clearly define and publicly announce it as accessible to the general public, or make it publicly accessible and explicitly label it on its official website.
Exclusions and exceptions
Versions below 6, or names/identifiers without an explicit version 6+, do not count regardless of descriptions or positioning. Closed betas and private access do not count. Labeling errors, placeholders or website version names without an actually publicly accessible model do not count. Mythos-branded releases limited to verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov or Claude Security, do not qualify on their own. An announcement alone without public access is insufficient.
Timing & resolution
The rules use December 31, 2027 in ET. Provider metadata instead gives December 31, 2027 at 23:59 UTC (6:59 p.m. EST), an earlier cutoff than the end of that ET date. The qualifying window starts at market creation.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules' ET calendar-date deadline and the provider's 23:59 UTC timestamp do not align; the source does not specify which controls. Otherwise, the stated access conditions are clear: open rolling waitlist signups count, an announcement alone is insufficient, and no qualifying release means No.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.92 / 0.94. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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