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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.7% | 765.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.7k | ↗ |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 128.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.0k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 20.5% | 3,739.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $9.3k | ↗ |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 29.5% | 74.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $10.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 355.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.4k | ↗ |
| Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 1,235.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $10.6k | ↗ |
| Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 1,428.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.2k | ↗ |
| Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 12.5% | 1,993.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.2k | ↗ |
| Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 1,584.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.3k | ↗ |
| Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,503.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.4k | ↗ |
| Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 1,235.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.0% | 541.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.9k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 86.5% | 13.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Dec 2027 | $12.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | 967.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.1k | ↗ |
| Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 1,428.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $13.2k | ↗ |
| Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 2,601.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $13.3k | ↗ |
| Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 1,770.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $13.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 59.5% | 54.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.6k | ↗ |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 18.5% | 116.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $14.0k | ↗ |
| Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 19.5% | 992.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $14.2k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
IPO contracts and
return calculations
Anthropic IPO predictions
Compare IPO deadlines and valuation conditions in the available Anthropic contracts.
View Anthropic IPO contracts ↗OpenAI IPO predictions
Check the listing deadline, valuation measure and treatment of a delayed IPO.
View OpenAI IPO contracts ↗Annualized return calculation
See how entry price, costs and payout timing affect the return if a contract wins.
Read the return methodology ↗