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Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2029Liquidity $8.5kLifetime volume $4.2kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves Yes if CMI awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem or officially declares that problem solved by the deadline; otherwise No. A published proof alone does not qualify.

Conditions for a winning outcome

CMI awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or officially declares the problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by the deadline. An award is sufficient but not required. AI involvement and whether a recipient accepts or declines a prize do not matter. Official CMI information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may confirm that a qualifying declaration or award occurred.

Exclusions and exceptions

A published or publicly posted proof alone does not qualify, regardless of acceptance by the mathematical community. Without a qualifying CMI award or declaration by the deadline, the market resolves No.

Timing & resolution

11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, equivalent to the provider timestamp of 2029-01-01T04:59:00Z.

Ambiguities in the rules

No material ambiguity. The rules permit a consensus of credible reporting to confirm CMI action, though they do not define “consensus” or “credible.”

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes29.5%
29.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No70.5%
70.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.29 / 0.3. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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