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Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Predicts whether the Hodge Conjecture becomes the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI before Dec 31, 2027, per specific lab announcement rules.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Resolves Yes if an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces a solution to any qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, explicitly expressing it is solved and crediting the lab, its researchers, or its models (alone or jointly with outside researchers). The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap. If multiple qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), the one whose name comes first alphabetically determines the outcome. No confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used as a resolution source.
Exclusions and exceptions
Resolves No if no qualifying problem is solved by an eligible lab by the deadline, triggering the specific outcome 'No solution by Dec 31, 2027'. Also No for partial results, progress announcements, or announcements crediting only outside researchers without lab attribution. Navier-Stokes announcements never qualify. Announcements by ineligible entities or individuals not representing an eligible lab do not qualify.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z).
Ambiguities in the rules
The rule lists 44 named eligible labs plus any company with a model on the MMLU-pro leaderboard at announcement time; the leaderboard's exact composition and update frequency are not specified, creating uncertainty about which labs are eligible. The rule does not define what constitutes an 'official representative' of a lab for announcement purposes. The phrase 'a consensus of credible reporting' is not further defined, leaving the threshold for what counts as credible reporting unclear.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.35 / 0.37. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T14:00:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T13:58:05.727244Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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