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Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $5.0kLifetime volume $86.7kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Predicts whether the Hodge Conjecture becomes the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI before Dec 31, 2027, per specific lab announcement rules.

Conditions for a winning outcome

Resolves Yes if an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces a solution to any qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, explicitly expressing it is solved and crediting the lab, its researchers, or its models (alone or jointly with outside researchers). The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap. If multiple qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), the one whose name comes first alphabetically determines the outcome. No confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used as a resolution source.

Exclusions and exceptions

Resolves No if no qualifying problem is solved by an eligible lab by the deadline, triggering the specific outcome 'No solution by Dec 31, 2027'. Also No for partial results, progress announcements, or announcements crediting only outside researchers without lab attribution. Navier-Stokes announcements never qualify. Announcements by ineligible entities or individuals not representing an eligible lab do not qualify.

Timing & resolution

December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rule lists 44 named eligible labs plus any company with a model on the MMLU-pro leaderboard at announcement time; the leaderboard's exact composition and update frequency are not specified, creating uncertainty about which labs are eligible. The rule does not define what constitutes an 'official representative' of a lab for announcement purposes. The phrase 'a consensus of credible reporting' is not further defined, leaving the threshold for what counts as credible reporting unclear.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes36.0%
36.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No64.0%
64.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.35 / 0.37. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T14:00:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T13:58:05.727244Z

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