Yes16.5%
Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
The rules select the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem announced solved by an eligible AI lab by the deadline. Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer wins selection if announced on the earliest qualifying day, since same-day ties are alphabetical. However, the rules describe outcomes that do not match the listed Yes/No choices.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Eligible announcers are the labs named in the source, their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model on the MMLU-pro leaderboard at announcement time, or their official representatives. They must claim a full solution as work of the lab, its researchers or its models, alone or jointly with outsiders. Qualifying problems are Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap. Among problems announced on the earliest qualifying calendar day (ET), the first alphabetically in that list is selected. No outside confirmation is required.
Exclusions and exceptions
Partial results, progress claims, announcements by ineligible entities, and Navier-Stokes solutions do not qualify. Merely crediting or congratulating outside researchers is insufficient, even if they used the lab's models, compute or research credits. Official lab or representative information is the primary resolution source, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If nothing qualifies by the deadline, the rules specify "No solution by Dec 31, 2027".
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, equivalent to January 1, 2028, at 04:59 UTC, matching the provider end timestamp.
Ambiguities in the rules
The listed outcomes are Yes and No, but the rules say resolution is to a selected problem's name or "No solution by Dec 31, 2027." They do not explicitly map those results to the binary outcomes. The title suggests Yes for Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer and No otherwise, but that mapping is not stated in the rules. The deadline and same-day alphabetical tie-break are clear.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order.
The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No83.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.16 / 0.17. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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