Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $13.6kLifetime volume $62.9kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves Yes if Alibaba is fully removed from the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, via an official DoD/Federal Register delisting. Otherwise No. Subsidiary removal, renaming, merger, or suspension without delisting does not qualify.

Conditions for a winning outcome

Resolves to Yes if Alibaba is fully removed from the Section 1260H list by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Removal must be reflected in an updated official list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, or in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal qualifies even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. A removal qualifies regardless of later retraction or withdrawal. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (defense.gov or war.gov).

Exclusions and exceptions

Resolves to No if Alibaba remains on the Section 1260H list as of June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by that deadline. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while Alibaba remains listed does not qualify. Ceasing to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate does not qualify. Suspension of enforcement without removal from the list does not qualify.

Timing & resolution

June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to July 1, 2027, 03:59:00 UTC).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules specify the list as of June 8, 2026, but do not define what happens if Alibaba is added or removed between the market start and that date. The rules do not specify how to treat a situation where Alibaba is not on the June 8, 2026 list but appears on a later list before the deadline. No other concrete ambiguities are present.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes13.5%

13.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No86.5%

86.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.12 / 0.15. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T11:15:03+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T11:14:05.810317Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

Explore more artificial intelligence →