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3 months remainingPolymarket data · refreshed every 15 minutes
Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 1,584.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.1k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 54.5% | 142.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.2k | ↗ |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.5% | 89.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.2k | ↗ |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 34.5% | 374.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.3k | ↗ |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 1,770.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.3k | ↗ |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 20% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 20.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.3k | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 66.2% | 41.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.3k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 79.0% | 41.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.5k | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 1,584.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 67.5% | 77.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 53.2% | 70.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.7k | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 952.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 10.1% | 591.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.0k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 29.0% | 511.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $3.0k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 64.5% | 44.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 24.5% | 226.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 26.0% | 210.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.5k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 39.0% | 775.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Mar 2027 | $3.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 64.1% | 45.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.9k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 36.0% | 345.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $4.0k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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