Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?

Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $3.7kLifetime volume $3.6kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves to Yes if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least $60 per million tokens by June 30, 2027. Otherwise No. No qualifying model by deadline also resolves to No.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A qualifying model must have a name or identifier that includes 'Fable' and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors (e.g., Claude Fable 5.2, 5.3, 6, or a model named like 'Claude Fable 5' if its version is 5.2+). The debut price is the 'Base tokens' output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing) when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. The primary resolution source is official Anthropic information, including its official API pricing page, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Exclusions and exceptions

Models whose name does not include 'Fable' or which retain a version below 5.2 (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1, Claude Mythos 5.1) do not qualify. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The debut price must be at least $60 per million tokens in USD; any lower price results in No.

Timing & resolution

June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to July 1, 2027, 03:59:00 UTC as provided).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not define what constitutes 'made available to the general public' (e.g., limited beta vs. full release). The phrase 'standard output token price' is not explicitly defined beyond excluding surcharges and certain inference types; it is unclear if regional pricing variations (e.g., different base prices for different regions) are considered. The rules do not specify how to handle a model that debuts with a price but later changes before the deadline. The term 'consensus of credible reporting' is not defined.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes14.5%

14.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No85.5%

85.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.14 / 0.15. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T17:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T16:58:05.285071Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

Explore more artificial intelligence →