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Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?
Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Tracks whether Kimi K3.1 Pro (or its Highspeed variant) is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall (no style control) leaderboard and achieves a Score of at least 1490 at the 12:00 PM ET check on the calendar day after first appearance, with an outer deadline of June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z).
Conditions for a winning outcome
Resolves Yes if a model named Kimi K3.1 Pro (including Highspeed or effort/style labels like Max/High, and any name containing 'Kimi' and 'K3.1' regardless of formatting) is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall no-style-control leaderboard, is not marked AutoEval, and its Score column value at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearance is at least 1490. If multiple models are added on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model is used. If the leaderboard is unavailable at that time, use the first subsequent available score; if unavailable through seven days after first appearance or no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, resolve No. Models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. A model removed and not re-added before the check does not qualify.
Exclusions and exceptions
No if the debuting Kimi K3.1 Pro entry scores below 1490, is AutoEval-labeled, is removed and not re-added by the 12:00 PM ET check, is not newly added, is added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance, or no qualifying model appears by the deadline. Other Kimi models (e.g., K3, K2.8) do not qualify.
Timing & resolution
If a qualifying model appears, the check is 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearance; if the source is unavailable, the first subsequent available score within seven days applies. Final outer deadline: June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z).
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not define how to determine the exact calendar date a model is 'first added' if it appears incrementally or is updated during a day; the next-day 12:00 PM ET check could depend on that interpretation. It is also unclear whether a qualifying model added near June 30, 2027, with a delayed first appearance after that date can still be considered, beyond the explicit outer deadline.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.34 / 0.35. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T13:30:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:28:39.568481Z
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