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Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?

Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $2.5kLifetime volume $2.2kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Tracks whether Kimi K3.1 Pro (or its Highspeed variant) is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall (no style control) leaderboard and achieves a Score of at least 1490 at the 12:00 PM ET check on the calendar day after first appearance, with an outer deadline of June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z).

Conditions for a winning outcome

Resolves Yes if a model named Kimi K3.1 Pro (including Highspeed or effort/style labels like Max/High, and any name containing 'Kimi' and 'K3.1' regardless of formatting) is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall no-style-control leaderboard, is not marked AutoEval, and its Score column value at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearance is at least 1490. If multiple models are added on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model is used. If the leaderboard is unavailable at that time, use the first subsequent available score; if unavailable through seven days after first appearance or no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, resolve No. Models added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. A model removed and not re-added before the check does not qualify.

Exclusions and exceptions

No if the debuting Kimi K3.1 Pro entry scores below 1490, is AutoEval-labeled, is removed and not re-added by the 12:00 PM ET check, is not newly added, is added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance, or no qualifying model appears by the deadline. Other Kimi models (e.g., K3, K2.8) do not qualify.

Timing & resolution

If a qualifying model appears, the check is 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after first appearance; if the source is unavailable, the first subsequent available score within seven days applies. Final outer deadline: June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not define how to determine the exact calendar date a model is 'first added' if it appears incrementally or is updated during a day; the next-day 12:00 PM ET check could depend on that interpretation. It is also unclear whether a qualifying model added near June 30, 2027, with a delayed first appearance after that date can still be considered, beyond the explicit outer deadline.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes34.5%
34.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No65.5%
65.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.34 / 0.35. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T13:30:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:28:39.568481Z

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