Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $4.7kLifetime volume $14.7kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Resolves Yes if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) is newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard and scores at least 1530 at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance; otherwise No. Uses the Score column under Text Arena | Overall with style control off. AutoEval models excluded. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring one is used. If a model is removed before the check time and not re-added, it does not qualify. If the resolution source is unavailable at the check time, the first subsequent available score is used; if still unavailable after 7 days or no qualifying model by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, resolves No.

Conditions for a winning outcome

The market resolves to Yes if: (1) a model whose name includes 'Fable' and is designated as version 5.2 or higher (e.g., Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Fable 6), regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, is newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard; (2) the model is not marked 'AutoEval'; (3) at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, the model's Score column (under Text Arena | Overall, style control off) is at least 1530; (4) the model remains on the leaderboard at that check time. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant. If multiple qualifying models are added on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring one is used. Resolution relies solely on the Score column, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

Exclusions and exceptions

The market resolves to No if: (1) no qualifying model (Fable 5.2+) appears on the leaderboard by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET; (2) a qualifying model appears but its Score at the check time is below 1530; (3) the model is marked 'AutoEval'; (4) the model is removed from the leaderboard before 12:00 PM ET the day after its first appearance and not re-added by then; (5) the resolution source is unavailable at the check time and remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears; (6) the model's version is below 5.2 (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1) or does not include 'Fable' (e.g., Claude Mythos 5.1).

Timing & resolution

The deadline for the event is June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If a qualifying model appears, the score is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance on the leaderboard. If the resolution source is unavailable at that time, the market uses the first subsequent available score; if still unavailable after 7 days, resolves No. The provider end date is 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z (equivalent to June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET).

Ambiguities in the rules

The source contains an internal contradiction: it lists 'Claude Fable 5.1' as both a qualifying example (a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner) and a non-qualifying example (version below 5.2). It is unclear whether 'Claude Fable 5.1' is intended to qualify. Additionally, the source does not specify how to handle a model named 'Fable' with no explicit version number, nor how to handle non-numeric Score column values. These are source-side ambiguities not resolvable from the text alone.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes36.0%

36.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No64.0%

64.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.35 / 0.37. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T12:45:06+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:44:39.376399Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

Explore more artificial intelligence →