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Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $2.8kLifetime volume $5.1kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

This market resolves to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least 65% at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance. Otherwise, it resolves to "No".

Conditions for a winning outcome

The next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ qualifies if: (1) its name or model identifier includes "Fable" and is designated as version 5.2 or higher (e.g., Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Fable 6); (2) it is newly added to the site (prior release or availability is irrelevant); (3) it is displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance (if removed and not re-added by then, it does not qualify); (4) if multiple qualifying models appear on the same calendar date (ET), the one with the highest HLE Accuracy is used; (5) the HLE Accuracy displayed on its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart is at least 65%.

Exclusions and exceptions

The market resolves to "No" if: (1) no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; (2) the qualifying model's HLE Accuracy is below 65%; (3) the model's name does not include "Fable" or retains a version below 5.2 (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1, Claude Mythos 5.1); (4) the model is first added but subsequently removed and not re-added, so it is not displayed at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance; (5) the resolution source is unavailable at the relevant time and remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears; (6) the model is added on a calendar date after the initial qualifying model's first appearance (only the first qualifying model's appearance matters).

Timing & resolution

The deadline for resolution is 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site. If the resolution source is unavailable at that time, the market resolves based on the first subsequent instance when the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears, or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No".

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not specify how to determine the exact time of first appearance on the site (e.g., whether it is based on the site's timestamp, a scrape, or other evidence). The phrase "calendar date following the date on which it first appears" could be ambiguous if the model appears near midnight ET, but the rules treat ET timestamps as equivalent to UTC for deadlines, so this is not flagged as an ambiguity. No other concrete ambiguities are present.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes27.5%
27.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No72.5%
72.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.27 / 0.28. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:58:38.586118Z

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