Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least 65% at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance. Otherwise, it resolves to "No".
Conditions for a winning outcome
The next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ qualifies if: (1) its name or model identifier includes "Fable" and is designated as version 5.2 or higher (e.g., Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Fable 6); (2) it is newly added to the site (prior release or availability is irrelevant); (3) it is displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance (if removed and not re-added by then, it does not qualify); (4) if multiple qualifying models appear on the same calendar date (ET), the one with the highest HLE Accuracy is used; (5) the HLE Accuracy displayed on its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart is at least 65%.
Exclusions and exceptions
The market resolves to "No" if: (1) no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; (2) the qualifying model's HLE Accuracy is below 65%; (3) the model's name does not include "Fable" or retains a version below 5.2 (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1, Claude Mythos 5.1); (4) the model is first added but subsequently removed and not re-added, so it is not displayed at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance; (5) the resolution source is unavailable at the relevant time and remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears; (6) the model is added on a calendar date after the initial qualifying model's first appearance (only the first qualifying model's appearance matters).
Timing & resolution
The deadline for resolution is 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site. If the resolution source is unavailable at that time, the market resolves based on the first subsequent instance when the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears, or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No".
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not specify how to determine the exact time of first appearance on the site (e.g., whether it is based on the site's timestamp, a scrape, or other evidence). The phrase "calendar date following the date on which it first appears" could be ambiguous if the model appears near midnight ET, but the rules treat ET timestamps as equivalent to UTC for deadlines, so this is not flagged as an ambiguity. No other concrete ambiguities are present.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.27 / 0.28. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:58:38.586118Z
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