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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 86.5% | 23.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $838 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 68.5% | 37.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $882 | ↗ |
| Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by February 28, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 79.0% | 96.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Mar 2027 | $893 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.0% | 4,469.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $902 | ↗ |
| CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 1,697.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $921 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 49.0% | 183.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $948 | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 87.5% | 21.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $957 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 40.0% | 116.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $981 | ↗ |
| Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 73.0% | 58.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $991 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 72.5% | 60.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1,000 | ↗ |
| Will Databricks not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 45.3% | 94.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 60.5% | 108.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.1% | 103.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 12.3% | 483.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 51.5% | 163.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 29.0% | 183.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 75.0% | 14.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.0% | 111.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.7% | 1,014.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 36.5% | 336.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.2k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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