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Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?
Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves Yes if a newly added GPT Terra 5.7+ model scores at least 1450 on the Arena.AI Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) at 12:00 PM ET the calendar date after first appearance; otherwise No.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Resolves Yes if a newly added model whose name or model identifier includes 'GPT' and 'Terra' and is designated version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors (e.g., GPT-6 Terra, Astra-branded release meeting criteria), appears on the Arena.AI Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) and its Score column shows at least 1450 at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following first appearance. The model must not be marked AutoEval. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. The model must be newly added; prior release, beta, or public accessibility is irrelevant. Resolution uses solely the Score column value, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Exclusions and exceptions
Resolves No if no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, or if the qualifying model's score is below 1450 at the specified time, or if the model is marked AutoEval, or if the model is removed and not re-added by the check time. Also No for models without Terra in name, versions below 5.7 (e.g., GPT-5.6 Terra, Sol, Luna), fine-tunes/modes/restricted variants (e.g., Cyber, Ultrafast), or if models are added on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance. Also No if the leaderboard is unavailable through the 7th day after first appearance.
Timing & resolution
Resolution check occurs at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the qualifying model's first leaderboard appearance. If no qualifying model appears, market resolves No by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET. If leaderboard unavailable at check time, resolve at first subsequent availability, but No if unavailable through the 7th day after first appearance.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules reference 'the specified score' (1450) which comes from the question rather than being restated in the rules text. ET and UTC timestamps are equivalent for deadline purposes. No other concrete ambiguities identified.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.49 / 0.54. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:58:38.586118Z
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