Anthropic74.5%
IPOs & valuations Open at last refresh
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
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What actually has to happen?
A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
THE MARKET’S VIEW
Two outcomes. One precise question.
OpenAI25.5%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.72 / 0.77. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-22T09:45:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:34:57.440296Z
Keep the investment thesis separate
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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