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Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by February 28, 2027?

Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Mar 2027Liquidity $954Lifetime volume $1.4kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

Original terms

A plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Small model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Small" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Small 3.2 or Mistral Small 4 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Small 5. A new Mistral Small model released after Mistral Small 4 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-small-2603, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 4.0 or below, such as Mistral Small 4 (released March 16, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, experimental or Labs variants such as Mistral Small Creative, and models whose name does not include "Small," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Medium 3.5, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Mistral AI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Mistral AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes79.0%
79.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No21.0%
21.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.78 / 0.8. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T13:45:06+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:44:41.76636Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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