INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Prediction Market Screener
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Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
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Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 7,324.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $17.0k | ↗ |
| Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 1,263.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $16.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 8.0% | 729.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.8k | ↗ |
| Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 18.5% | 1,054.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $16.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 13.5% | 435.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | 6,279.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.0k | ↗ |
| Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 931.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $15.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 95.7% | 3.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.7k | ↗ |
| Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 1,263.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $15.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 4.7% | 1,206.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,840.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.3% | 2,299.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $15.1k | ↗ |
| Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 618.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.7k | ↗ |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? Mergers & acquisitions · Polymarket | Yes | 67.5% | 39.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $14.7k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 18.5% | 1,054.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $14.5k | ↗ |
| Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Emerging themes · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 1,263.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $14.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.9% | 2,664.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in June 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | 6,279.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.8% | 370.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 1.4% | 3,470.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $13.4k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗