Yes65.0%
Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces by the deadline that the lab has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem. Otherwise, resolves No. Independent validation of the solution is not required.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, Yang-Mills existence and mass gap, Hodge Conjecture, and Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. The announcement must claim a solution as work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outsiders. Eligible entities are the labs explicitly listed in the rules, their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model on the MMLU-pro leaderboard at announcement time. No confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
Exclusions and exceptions
Navier-Stokes announcements, partial results, progress toward a solution, announcements by ineligible entities, and announcements after the deadline do not qualify. Neither does an announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, even if they used the lab's models, compute, or research credits.
Timing & resolution
11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, equivalent to January 1, 2028 at 04:59 UTC.
Ambiguities in the rules
Official information from eligible labs or their official representatives is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The rules do not define 'official representative' or the threshold for a 'consensus of credible reporting.' Leaderboard-based eligibility is assessed at announcement time.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No35.0%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.64 / 0.66. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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