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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 625.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $514.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 17.5% | 121.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $132.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.5% | 517.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.5k | ↗ |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 5,341.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $21.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 187.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $19.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.7% | 1,022.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.9% | 370.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.8% | 247.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $16.5k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 87.5% | 11.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Dec 2027 | $12.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 58.5% | 57.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $12.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.3% | 931.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.5k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 8.5% | 700.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.2k | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 1,031.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.5k | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 94.0% | 9.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $7.7k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 92.6% | 11.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 71.5% | 63.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 25.5% | 216.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.1% | 538.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.4k | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 19.5% | 991.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $5.2k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 36.0% | 345.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $4.7k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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