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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 58.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $771 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | 6,018.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $805 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 77.0% | 46.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $835 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 86.5% | 23.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $858 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 47.0% | 88.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $923 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 43.1% | 103.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.0k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 12.6% | 473.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 60.5% | 108.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 75.0% | 14.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 36.5% | 336.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 29.0% | 183.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.5% | 109.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.7% | 1,014.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 43.0% | 243.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.4k | ↗ |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 51.5% | 163.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.5k | ↗ |
| Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $1.6k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 30.5% | 171.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.6k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 49.5% | 80.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.1k | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 86.0% | 24.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.2k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
IPO contracts and
return calculations
Anthropic IPO predictions
Compare IPO deadlines and valuation conditions in the available Anthropic contracts.
View Anthropic IPO contracts ↗OpenAI IPO predictions
Check the listing deadline, valuation measure and treatment of a delayed IPO.
View OpenAI IPO contracts ↗Annualized return calculation
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Read the return methodology ↗