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Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by January 31, 2027?

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Feb 2027Liquidity $1.9kLifetime volume $2.4kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Market resolves Yes if no GPT Astra 6.1+ model is publicly released by Jan 31, 2027 (ET). Qualifying model must be version 6.1+, named Astra, publicly accessible, and confirmed via OpenAI's official info.

Conditions for a winning outcome

Yes if, by the deadline, OpenAI has not made any GPT Astra model version 6.1 or higher publicly accessible. The model must include Astra in its name or model identifier (case-insensitive, regardless of capitalization, prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors; e.g., GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, GPT Astra 7), be version 6.1+, and be launched and publicly accessible — either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on OpenAI's official website. Open beta or open rolling waitlist signups qualify. Closed beta or any form of private access does not qualify. Resolution uses official OpenAI information as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting as additional verification.

Exclusions and exceptions

No if OpenAI publicly releases a qualifying GPT Astra 6.1+ model before the deadline. Does not qualify: GPT-6 Astra or lower versions, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of GPT-6 Astra; tier-labeled models (GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and their successors); task-specific or modality lines (GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime); closed beta or private access; placeholder text or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model actually publicly accessible.

Timing & resolution

January 31, 2027, calendar date ET (equivalent to 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z UTC).

Ambiguities in the rules

The rules do not explicitly define how 'accessible to the general public' applies to limited regional availability or restricted signups beyond the open beta/waitlist examples. It is unclear how to handle a model announced but not yet accessible exactly at the deadline, or whether an announcement alone without confirmed public access suffices if made near the deadline.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes6.5%
6.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No93.5%
93.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.05 / 0.08. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-23T20:00:15+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T19:58:27.16849Z

Event contracts and stock returns

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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