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Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by January 31, 2027?
When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves Yes if no GPT Astra 6.1+ model is publicly released by Jan 31, 2027 (ET). Qualifying model must be version 6.1+, named Astra, publicly accessible, and confirmed via OpenAI's official info.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Yes if, by the deadline, OpenAI has not made any GPT Astra model version 6.1 or higher publicly accessible. The model must include Astra in its name or model identifier (case-insensitive, regardless of capitalization, prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors; e.g., GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, GPT Astra 7), be version 6.1+, and be launched and publicly accessible — either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on OpenAI's official website. Open beta or open rolling waitlist signups qualify. Closed beta or any form of private access does not qualify. Resolution uses official OpenAI information as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting as additional verification.
Exclusions and exceptions
No if OpenAI publicly releases a qualifying GPT Astra 6.1+ model before the deadline. Does not qualify: GPT-6 Astra or lower versions, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of GPT-6 Astra; tier-labeled models (GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and their successors); task-specific or modality lines (GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, Realtime); closed beta or private access; placeholder text or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model actually publicly accessible.
Timing & resolution
January 31, 2027, calendar date ET (equivalent to 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z UTC).
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not explicitly define how 'accessible to the general public' applies to limited regional availability or restricted signups beyond the open beta/waitlist examples. It is unclear how to handle a model announced but not yet accessible exactly at the deadline, or whether an announcement alone without confirmed public access suffices if made near the deadline.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.05 / 0.08. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T20:00:15+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T19:58:27.16849Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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