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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 49.0% | 183.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.0% | 304.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 11.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.2k | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 1,234.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 128.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.4k | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 81.0% | 36.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $1.5k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 85.9% | 13.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.5k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.0% | 967.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.7k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $1.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 56.0% | 133.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.8k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 238.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $2.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 27.5% | 560.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $2.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 952.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $3.3k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 44.0% | 99.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 8.3% | 716.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.5k | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 1,583.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $3.6k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 79.5% | 39.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $3.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 30.5% | 171.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $3.8k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 39.0% | 775.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Mar 2027 | $3.9k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 64.8% | 44.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.1k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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