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Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T?

Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $1.4kLifetime volume $1.3kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes9.5%
9.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No90.5%
90.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.09 / 0.1. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T10:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:52:56.93734Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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