INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Geopolitical outcomes. Investor context.
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Geopolitics belongs in an investor’s research. Explore Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, trade routes and geopolitical turning points. These contracts describe events, not a guaranteed effect on stock or commodity returns.
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 618.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $178.0k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 71.5% | 32.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $143.4k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 55.5% | 134.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $92.2k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 51.5% | 198.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jun 2027 | $88.1k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 65.5% | 51.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Nov 2027 | $84.5k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 67.0% | 43.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Dec 2027 | $82.5k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 826.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $77.1k | ↗ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 5,159.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $69.3k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 63.0% | 63.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Oct 2027 | $68.3k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 58.0% | 102.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Aug 2027 | $63.8k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 26.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $63.3k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 60.0% | 81.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Sep 2027 | $62.7k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 391.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 May 2027 | $49.4k | ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 716.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $48.9k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 33.5% | 2,064.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Mar 2027 | $47.7k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 49.5% | 80.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $39.6k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 25.5% | 2,124.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $35.0k | ↗ |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 27.5% | 194.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $27.3k | ↗ |
| Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 284.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $27.1k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 66.0% | 41.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $23.9k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
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Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
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Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
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