Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $178.0kLifetime volume $3.5mSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes9.5%

9.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No90.5%

90.50¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.09 / 0.1. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:15:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:14:59.071051Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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