INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Geopolitical outcomes. Investor context.
Explore the available contracts, separate the outcomes and read what actually qualifies.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Geopolitics belongs in an investor’s research. Explore Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, trade routes and geopolitical turning points. These contracts describe events, not a guaranteed effect on stock or commodity returns.
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 24.5% | 224.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $21.4k | ↗ |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 21.0% | 860.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $19.8k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 8.5% | 3,465.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $18.8k | ↗ |
| Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 618.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.5k | ↗ |
| Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 2.1% | 2,442.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $17.5k | ↗ |
| Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 7,323.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $17.1k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 18.0% | 1,101.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $14.5k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Belarus by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 8,356.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $12.0k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Poland by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 8,356.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.9k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Finland by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.5% | 8,356.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 9.0% | 651.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.8k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Russia by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.8% | 5,921.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.7k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in another country by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 1.5% | 3,366.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.6k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in India by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 1.6% | 3,178.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.6k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 389.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.5k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 1.0% | 4,632.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.5k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in another European country by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | 4,269.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.5k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Qatar by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.6% | 7,158.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.4k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Vatican City by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 0.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.4k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in China by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 3.1% | 1,734.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $11.4k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗