Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?

Will Russia invade another country by...?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $26.1kLifetime volume $5.7kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes20.0%

20.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

No80.0%

80.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.19 / 0.21. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:30:02+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:28:56.979124Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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