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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 1,427.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $11.0k | ↗ |
| Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 1,234.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $10.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 37.3% | 129.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $10.2k | ↗ |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 29.5% | 74.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $10.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 8.6% | 688.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $9.5k | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 1,031.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.2% | 4,598.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $8.4k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 566.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.1k | ↗ |
| Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 10.2% | 583.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.1k | ↗ |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 23.0% | 244.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.0k | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 94.0% | 9.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $7.8k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.8% | 998.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.8k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 71.5% | 63.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $7.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.5% | 251.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 287.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.9k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 92.6% | 11.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $6.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 26.2% | 208.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.2k | ↗ |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 47.5% | 197.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $6.2k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.2% | 533.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.1% | 256.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.4k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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