Yes9.2%
Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple qualifying problems are announced the same ET calendar day, the problem whose name comes first alphabetically determines resolution. The source does not fully specify how the Yes/No outcomes map when the first qualifying problem solved is not Yang-Mills.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Yes qualifies if an eligible AI lab or official representative announces a complete solution to the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (presented as the lab's, its researchers', its models', or joint work with outside researchers) before any other qualifying problem, or on a day shared with other qualifying problems where Yang-Mills is first alphabetically. Navier-Stokes announcements do not qualify. No Clay Math confirmation is required. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used as a resolution source.
Exclusions and exceptions
No applies if no qualifying problem is announced by an eligible lab by the deadline, if only partial results or progress are announced, if credit goes only to outside researchers, if the announcement is from an ineligible entity, or if Navier-Stokes is the only announcement. If two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same ET calendar day, the alphabetically first problem name determines the outcome, not Yang-Mills unless it is first alphabetically.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Equivalent UTC timestamps represent the same deadline.
Ambiguities in the rules
The source lists five qualifying problems but does not state whether the full Clay Math Millennium Problem list is limited to those five; it is unclear whether a problem outside the list could ever qualify. Navier-Stokes is excluded both from the qualifying problems list and under the announcement rules. The rules do not clearly state what outcome applies when the first qualifying problem solved is not Yang-Mills (e.g., if P versus NP is solved first). The source does not define what constitutes a 'complete solution' or an 'official representative.'
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order.
The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No90.8%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.091 / 0.093. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T14:00:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T13:58:05.727244Z
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