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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 16.0% | 1,358.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $4.5k | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 73.7% | 29.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $4.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 6.8% | 861.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 22.1% | 257.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.1k | ↗ |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.6% | 1,031.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.7% | 1,023.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $5.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 26.2% | 208.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 11.3% | 529.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $6.6k | ↗ |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 46.5% | 206.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $6.7k | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 92.7% | 11.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $6.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 625.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.0k | ↗ |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 238.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.0k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 26.8% | 203.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 94.0% | 9.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 71.5% | 63.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 30 Jun 2027 | $7.3k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 16.9% | 347.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.4k | ↗ |
| Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 10.3% | 577.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.4k | ↗ |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.5% | 44.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $7.7k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 33.9% | 148.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $8.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 7.6% | 4,286.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $8.6k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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