INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Prediction Market Screener
for Investors.
Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 26.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $63.3k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 60.0% | 81.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Sep 2027 | $62.7k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 95.3% | 4.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $61.5k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 43.5% | 391.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 May 2027 | $49.4k | ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 23.5% | 716.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $48.9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 886.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $48.6k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 33.5% | 2,064.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Mar 2027 | $47.7k | ↗ |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027? Energy & commodities · Polymarket | Yes | 22.5% | 2,855.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $46.0k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 5.2% | 1,089.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $40.5k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 49.5% | 80.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $39.6k | ↗ |
| KOSPI all-time high before 2028? Stocks & indices · Polymarket | Yes | 27.5% | 194.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $37.6k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 25.5% | 2,124.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $35.0k | ↗ |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 560.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $29.2k | ↗ |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 10.5% | 560.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $28.5k | ↗ |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 27.5% | 194.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $27.3k | ↗ |
| Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 20.0% | 284.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $27.1k | ↗ |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 133.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $24.6k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 24.0% | 230.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.4k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 0.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $24.0k | ↗ |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 66.0% | 41.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $23.9k | ↗ |
Page 2 of 19
A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗