INVESTMENT THESES. MEASURABLE OUTCOMES.
Prediction Market Screener
for Investors.
Discover the events behind your thesis—from company milestones to geopolitical turning points.
↗Research the rules.
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
Then consider the return.3 months–3 years by default
Independent · Source-linked · No trade execution
THE SCREENER
Find your next research question.
| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 8.5% | 688.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $578.2k | ↗ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 9.5% | 618.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $178.0k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 71.5% | 32.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $143.1k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 16.5% | 127.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $141.3k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 0.7% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $119.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 3,786.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $96.6k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 140.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $91.8k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 55.5% | 134.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $91.7k | ↗ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 58.5% | 639.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $90.1k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 51.5% | 198.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jun 2027 | $86.5k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 66.0% | 49.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Nov 2027 | $84.5k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 50.5% | 77.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $83.4k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 67.5% | 42.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Dec 2027 | $83.1k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 2.9% | 1,812.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $82.8k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.1% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $80.0k | ↗ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? Economy & rates · Polymarket | Yes | 1.2% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 28 Jan 2027 | $77.1k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 37.5% | 827.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $75.3k | ↗ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 6.5% | 5,159.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $69.0k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 63.5% | 62.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Oct 2027 | $68.4k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Geopolitics · Polymarket | Yes | 26.5% | >9,999%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $66.4k | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
GO BEYOND THE NUMBER
The condition matters
as much as the price.
Anthropic IPO
Offering price or first-day close? Know which question you’re answering.
Explore the contracts ↗02 / CORPORATE MILESTONESOpenAI IPO
Timing, valuation and no-IPO outcomes—each with its own rules.
Explore the contracts ↗03 / INVESTOR TOOLKITAnnualized, explained
Compare holding periods without confusing potential payoff with expected return.
Understand the calculation ↗