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3 months remainingPolymarket data · refreshed every 15 minutes
Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Anthropic | 75.0% | 14.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2029 | $1.1k | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 69.0% | 36.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $936 | ↗ |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 20.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $787 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 58.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $771 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 72.0% | 61.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $661 | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 11.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $645 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 526.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $579 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 90.9% | 15.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $478 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.0% | 111.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $473 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 45.0% | 95.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $443 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 84.5% | 27.9%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $428 | ↗ |
| Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 40.0% | 2,788.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 31 Jan 2027 | $394 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 64.0% | 92.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $384 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $30 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 7.2% | 4,587.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $214 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on another exchange? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 8.4% | 704.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $206 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1550 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 17.0% | 1,234.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $133 | ↗ |
| Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 60.0% | 549.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Feb 2027 | $103 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on the NYSE? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 14.5% | 406.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $78 | ↗ |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 67.5% | 77.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $78 | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic list on the NASDAQ? Stocks & indices · Polymarket | Yes | 90.0% | 9.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $66 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
IPO contracts and
return calculations
Anthropic IPO predictions
Compare IPO deadlines and valuation conditions in the available Anthropic contracts.
View Anthropic IPO contracts ↗OpenAI IPO predictions
Check the listing deadline, valuation measure and treatment of a delayed IPO.
View OpenAI IPO contracts ↗Annualized return calculation
See how entry price, costs and payout timing affect the return if a contract wins.
Read the return methodology ↗