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Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $30 by June 30, 2027?

Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $397Lifetime volume $2.7kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Market resolves Yes if Anthropic's next Claude Opus 5.6+ model launches at $30+/million output tokens by June 30, 2027; otherwise No.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A model qualifies if its name or model identifier includes Opus and version is 5.6+ (regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors; including new whole-number generations such as Claude Opus 6). Debut price is the Base tokens output price for default global inference at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when first made available to the general public. Introductory prices count. If multiple qualifying models debut same day, highest price applies. Primary resolution source is official Anthropic information including its API pricing page, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Exclusions and exceptions

Models without Opus in name or identifier, versions below 5.6 (including Opus 5.5 and any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it), batch/fast mode/cached/US-only/data-residency prices, or no qualifying public debut by deadline all resolve No.

Timing & resolution

June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z). No qualifying public debut by then resolves No.

Ambiguities in the rules

The term 'debut' is not explicitly defined as first public availability versus first announcement; it is unclear whether an announced-but-unreleased model counts. The source specifies the debut price as the 'Base tokens' output price but does not detail how this tier relates to other listed output tiers beyond excluding surcharge-triggering rates.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes4.3%
4.30¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No95.7%
95.70¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.018 / 0.067. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T12:58:38.586118Z

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