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Original resolution rules on each contract
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| Contract / theme | Selected outcome | Price | Annualized if win · gross | End date | Liquidity | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 72.5% | 60.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $924 | ↗ |
| CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027? Financial health · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 1,698.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $898 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 19.0% | 4,472.5%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $880 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 86.5% | 23.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $838 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 77.0% | 46.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $816 | ↗ |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 47.0% | 88.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $812 | ↗ |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? Company milestones · Polymarket | OpenAI | 58.0% | 58.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $762 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 41.0% | 268.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $736 | ↗ |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 64.0% | 61.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Oct 2027 | $695 | ↗ |
| Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 15.5% | 7,206.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Apr 2027 | $678 | ↗ |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 88.0% | 11.4%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $672 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 15.0% | 1,503.1%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $658 | ↗ |
| Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by February 28, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 79.0% | 96.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Mar 2027 | $642 | ↗ |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? IPOs & valuations · Polymarket | Yes | 25.0% | 221.2%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $626 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 42.0% | 255.6%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $592 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 28.5% | 527.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $560 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Company milestones · Polymarket | Yes | 41.0% | 111.8%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jan 2028 | $544 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 5.5% | 6,853.7%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $517 | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 90.8% | 15.3%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $477 | ↗ |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? Artificial intelligence · Polymarket | Yes | 22.5% | 786.0%Loss if zero payout: 100% | 1 Jul 2027 | $475 | ↗ |
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A high conditional return is not evidence of an attractive investment. Low-priced outcomes often have large potential losses relative to their chance of winning. Provider end dates may differ from observation windows and actual payout dates. Read the methodology →
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